Friday, July 04, 2008

Superpower

Superpower.

Much has been made of the term ‘superpower’ as has been applied during the 20th century to countries that seem to have achieved a world dominate position in both economic power and world influence. Although there may have been in the past, countries that in historical terms could be described as super powers of their time, none of them have lasted more than a couple of centuries or so and none of them spanned the world or could meet the idealism test of what a superpower could look like. Their border influence and names of such countries may have changed even if the populations as contained within a cultural identity might remain. Never the less as purported holders of the title of ‘superpower’ the holding of it means more today driven by media, than at a time gone by. Now the term is linked more to the size of the stick than the arm that holds it, yet its full meaningful measure should be considered in with the overall influences stemming from economic and cultural drivers that it has or are aspired too. Assessing the quality of being a superpower might also be measured by those positive influences that have been taken up by the world in general and more specifically perhaps by individual countries that mean to model themselves on the ‘superpower’ attributes.

In order to be a holder of the term superpower today; should the recipient be judge on the basis of not just how influential its powers is in military terms and its global impact but also in its humanitarian, social, cultural power etc as they affects its population and perhaps others?
In recent time that is the 19th/20th century the holders of the title could be argued to be no more that a few practical holders of media superpower status named as Great Britain, USSR, and USA; although France, China or any other with a nuclear clout night also hold illusions to being a superpower. Of these only one might be a close approximation of what a superpower actually was. Their may have been other contenders with historical links like The Roman Empire, Spain, France, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Holland, etc but with the exception of TRE their influence did not have a long lasting entrenched imprint on greater large portion of the world stage.

What does perhaps a true superpower have to look like?

The most obvious measure in current use today is its ability to project itself onto a world platform, if necessary with the use of mobile force i.e. military, to the extent that it is unlikely that any other country could stand against it. This projection of such power though is a very short term effect and of limited ability, for the use of resources to achieve such a long term aim would be in the long run very crippling. So although the country that has the image of access to overwhelming military power may be thought of as a superpower, it is not a real or positive metaphor for the mantle of a proper superpower.

A component description of what a superpower might have contains many elements to it and what may make up a true superpower could be:-

Energy
Having resources, own control of it with continuity of supply.

Food
Security of it, with sufficient supply to sustain population against disruption.

Influence
To have global weight (not necessary military reach) and cultural power as a positive authority.

Social cohesion and equality
Internally all section recognises the achievability of equality. No one section dominates or is unbalanced by the other.


Fairness
Having a sense of overall fairness that can test legal or moral certitudes?

Laws
With as near uniform administrative structure as possible that frame the social and civil construct for fairness and equality.

Sustainability
Ability to generate internal consumable resources to support the civil society.

Executive Responsibility
Beneficial executive guidance in reacting to influencing effects such as civic, social, or infrastructure calamities.

Social culpable responsibility
Everyone shares the wealth or its paucity proportionately.

Inviolate rights
Human and civil right that are encoded and cannot be change without total population involvement for majority decision, i.e. referendums.

Economic perspicacity
A controlled economic structure that does not run for wholly self interest. One that plans for sustainability.

These characteristics may be seen as idealistic components of a proposed superpower and might lean more towards demonstrating a true democratic structure however democracy is not necessarily essential if a nation is structured with populous consensus. The faulted system that passes for democracy today is failing and will never shore up a true resilient superpower.

Arguably and using the components description above, there has only been one country which in the past that may have been a contender for the title of the first super power and that was Great Britain. For it alone has had some of the attributes laid out above that continue up today and to have injected influence onto a world stage. Its language, cultural, legal and administrative structure moved by its economic and power reach, still has resonance today, albeit that it does not now have the power base of the 18th / 20th centuries. It has moved back from colonial days and left in place language, laws, social and administrative structure that develop today, even though some cultural mistakes have been made in obtaining its nascent super power status it has occasionally used its power and influence to strand alone against subjugation and still carries the economic cost today in attempting to play on a world platform that no longer needs its withering big stick. Its past success is all the more remarkable since it is a small island with little in the way of massive natural resources apart from its people, which may have been in part the reason for its empire drive. Some would argue that it was a ravaging of some of the countries that composed the empire, which provided the resources that allowed the inventive and productive drive for the industrial revolution. And from this exploitive position, provided the step to be a 18th / 20th century super power, but this empire opportunism and industrialisation was totally reliant on its own early seafaring and later coal energy capability.

From a narrow economic and military point of view, the current perception is that the USA is the world’s only remaining superpower. However on a number of levels it has not achieved nor does it deserve the title of a superpower, yet. Its future development may correct this impression.

It has a military arsenal that has reach crippling proportion one that it will find difficult to pull back from. It is the current world’s largest economy as a single entity, (supported financially by the rest of the world) but it has none of the administrative, social, or beneficial influential cultural components that are desired to be taken up by other countries, or is it looked up to as a modal civilization that is worth plagiarising. Although it has interceded in past conflicts it has lately found it difficult to deferential between what is reasonably right, morally justified and political inspired expediency. It quickly seeks to withdraw into its own comfort zone once the military excursion has past and fails to generate a convincing inspirational vision.

Just as its military reach is unsustainable, its economic wealth will not of its own provided the spring board to become a superpower if the controlling influences do not have a guiding vision that covers all the attribute that may be considered necessary to make a long term future presence on a world stage. It is in economic dependency to the rest of the world and is captured by ‘right wing’ self serving free market idealism. Look under the crust of its societal structure and there is very little that the majority of its population can aspire too that should comfort them arising from the fruits of being, in media terms, a superpower. It labours under the illusion of the superpower but the debacle of Katrina - New Orleans etc should have dispelled any doubt as to its internal structural resilience and the extrication of its economy by “market forces” will put increases pressure on it. This is not to undermine the emotive cohesion that can be inspired from being under one flag but if too many are economically disfranchised, fragmentation will occur.

It could have had the potential to become a superpower meeting near all of the idealistic characteristics of a progressive and positive superpower, after demonstrating what can be achieved as has been shown in the past reconstruction it carried out after defeating Japan, the assistance laid on Germany and of course the UK economic deals but it has over the last three decades lacked the political stamina and consistency to see a vision for itself to develop any of the idealistic elements of what a superpower could look like.

Contrast any of the oil producing countries with economic wealth derived from oil, against their influence in social, cultural, administration, productive, inventiveness or language terms and they do not match anything GB achieved. None of them have any influential power to be considering a superpower nor are they ever likely to be once the oil becomes unusable. Even India or China are not on the pace of being super powers for the same structural reasons that internally afflict and continue to growingly exacerbate within the USA.

Given the current difficulties, the days of an achievable independent superpower status may well be over. Security of energy and food sustainability, social cohesion, cultural sophistication, fairness and beneficial influence are the prerequisite attributes required for such status and ones which aught to be acknowledged by others to be desirable for them to reach. Thus far, no one country has the drive to implement a political or social paradigm shift in the existing structures of governance to become a single superpower for as the consumable contingency of the moment are becoming too pressing to deal with individually, there is decreasing opportunity to be expansive when self interest become predominant.

To match the challenges of energy and ecological changes, there will be perhaps the creation of regional super influence or power blocks driven through the necessity for stability. Such power bocks may be about 5 in number, Europe, Asia, Middle East, Africa and USA. These though will not be same as a superpower; for that, one could look to Europe to be the first real world superpower. For today if one looks at the elements that have an impact on the structures that are needed to support a superpower, one can see the inauguration integration of many aspect of the idealistic components that are needed to be a world superpower of the future.

However for the moment at the start of the 21st century giving the label of superpower to any one country is an illusive one. One that does not stand up to in-depth scrutiny for the tectonic plates of security of certainty, sustainability, energy and environment are moving faster than any coordinated vision in view. Never the less if there cannot be a superpower, humans will need retrieval of super powers to protected their future.

God help America and a good 4th of July.

© Renot 2008

4.7.08 1300

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