Georgia's Cracked
Just when you think it’s safe --!
Whatever the disquiet in many Western capitals at the rash thinking that led President Saakashvili to order his troops offensively into South Ossetia on the 7th and over the week end, it was a clear provocative attack that opened the way for Russia to undertake military action to safeguard its passport holding citizen of whom 90% in S. Ossetia claim to prefer Russia. Although the west gives recognition to the territorial right by Georgia over S. Ossetia and Abkhazia it has always been a strained ‘agreement’ under contention between the EU/USA and is not accepted by Russia.
Now after the stupidity of action by Saakashvili, Russia has found a way of making a political mark of authority over the disputed areas to the extent that Georgia, having no comparable defences might itself now be taken over. And there is nothing to stop it happening. The west will make all the usual noises but it will not get into a military fight. It is hung by its short and curlies as it has not the resources, inclination, nor speedy organisation structure to act, in any case the position politically is futile. The EU also has a dependency for the Russian energy!
If there has been anything that shows that the EU is weak and can no longer ignore Russia, this is the one moment that highlights the exposure it has on a number of fronts.
Russia demands to be taken seriously.
It will not allow Georgia to become a member of NATO although others now will.
It is unlikely to relinquish its new hold on the disputed territories.
Energy source in the EU is now a serious economic and military weapon that impinges on policy action.
In election year USA is in no position to propagate any action, this is an EU problem.
The EU will do nothing to jeopardise the energy links.
In reacting with disproportionate action Russia has also made a mistake. It assumed that with its new found strength built on its energy exports that it can make punitive acts without reaction. There will be no actual physical action of course but it will stimulate consolidating moves throughout the EU. Germany will amend its constitution; Turkey will find an easier path to membership. The idea that Russia is as yet in accord with the west is mistaken and greater effort has to be made to develop strategic understanding or see it likely to pursue an agenda that is increasingly counter to a western view. The EU cannot be subordinate to NATO or the UN to the extent that it cannot react ‘independently’ It will have given a push to the idea of a stronger military cache and provide impetus to alternative energy resources. For the future the EU cannot afford to keep Russia isolated from the European project; it has to make a move soon.
© Renot 2008
1208081511
Whatever the disquiet in many Western capitals at the rash thinking that led President Saakashvili to order his troops offensively into South Ossetia on the 7th and over the week end, it was a clear provocative attack that opened the way for Russia to undertake military action to safeguard its passport holding citizen of whom 90% in S. Ossetia claim to prefer Russia. Although the west gives recognition to the territorial right by Georgia over S. Ossetia and Abkhazia it has always been a strained ‘agreement’ under contention between the EU/USA and is not accepted by Russia.
Now after the stupidity of action by Saakashvili, Russia has found a way of making a political mark of authority over the disputed areas to the extent that Georgia, having no comparable defences might itself now be taken over. And there is nothing to stop it happening. The west will make all the usual noises but it will not get into a military fight. It is hung by its short and curlies as it has not the resources, inclination, nor speedy organisation structure to act, in any case the position politically is futile. The EU also has a dependency for the Russian energy!
If there has been anything that shows that the EU is weak and can no longer ignore Russia, this is the one moment that highlights the exposure it has on a number of fronts.
Russia demands to be taken seriously.
It will not allow Georgia to become a member of NATO although others now will.
It is unlikely to relinquish its new hold on the disputed territories.
Energy source in the EU is now a serious economic and military weapon that impinges on policy action.
In election year USA is in no position to propagate any action, this is an EU problem.
The EU will do nothing to jeopardise the energy links.
In reacting with disproportionate action Russia has also made a mistake. It assumed that with its new found strength built on its energy exports that it can make punitive acts without reaction. There will be no actual physical action of course but it will stimulate consolidating moves throughout the EU. Germany will amend its constitution; Turkey will find an easier path to membership. The idea that Russia is as yet in accord with the west is mistaken and greater effort has to be made to develop strategic understanding or see it likely to pursue an agenda that is increasingly counter to a western view. The EU cannot be subordinate to NATO or the UN to the extent that it cannot react ‘independently’ It will have given a push to the idea of a stronger military cache and provide impetus to alternative energy resources. For the future the EU cannot afford to keep Russia isolated from the European project; it has to make a move soon.
© Renot 2008
1208081511
posted by Renot at 8:26 am
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