Technological Dead End
Has wo/man reached the technological dead end?
In considering the advancements in technology and engineering over the past 200 years, the ability to have motive engineering beyond the invention of the wheel has been a crucial facet in the technical advancement of wo/man. It is this motive engineering that has generated the productive ability which has driven (in a literal sense) the industrial and (the often eulogised by economist) the ‘post industrial age’ (sic) leading to the technology enhanced era up to today. All of it has been at a rapid pace corresponding with the use of exploitable carbon energy.
Every form of technological, engineering and science based development has been built on the incremental process of advancements that has gone before. Throughout history all civilisations have only succeeded with the ability to utilise the inventiveness and ingenuity of the application of such incremental developments and these developments provided the foundations of human’s current material wellbeing, at least in the most ‘developed’ parts of the world. For those parts that have had the strength, administrative structures and resources to consolidate their position of affluence by exhaustive use of acquired energy, progress has been swift. The same is not true of existing less able or developed countries. Despite the undoubted successes of technology and society now, history also seems to show that within advancements there is the slow incremental trend of degenerative processes that eventually undermine the civilisation to force an innovative creation to a different social order and some of the forces are not of a ‘self determinate’ nature.
Such has been the speed of material progress over the past 150 years and with the undisputed accomplishments of such progression, that it has become taken as a fact of existence today by many academic people that such progress can be sustained for as long as there is the ability to acquire knowledge that can be put to use. Such advancement and development that has been debatably rapid, dependant on which elements of development one considers, has to a great extent only been possible with the utilisation of abundant energy and although the raw material of energy production is becoming constrained actually or economically, the supposition is that with the application of a similar drive of inventiveness, that a energy crunch can be overcome and will allow technological advancement to be maintained. This view has often been expressed by those that have a wish to counter the opinion that an energy crunch is in fact looming and are not, as yet, overly concerned with either the evidence of sinking sustainability or detrimental environmental impact. Both views of plenty vs. replacement energy sources carry penalties primarily of a social demographic nature that will be disruptive to all countries as different balance of powers are defined.
Assuming that a substitute energy form can be found different from a carbon cycle and it is by no means certain that one can be developed within a time scale that will avoid a energy crash, or for it to be of a form that has the flexibility of perhaps oil to continue scientific advances; were does the advancement take humans when there is one fundamental element of advancement that has not changed; wo/man itself? Can technological advancement continue without end and still be meaningful to human’s existence?
The likely broad application of genetic engineering, social selectivity, DNA manipulation, material morph manipulation and nano constructs all of which are at an early stage of potential; will all rely on the continuation of a secure energy source and unrestrained technological advancement. Using historic trends, there does seem to be a steady incremental progression in developing such technologies that can only take place once the previous accumulated links are put in place. Such advancing steps are necessary to produce the possible enhancement of humans own abilities and smart energy utilisation for new mouldable materials to be developed that are used in the next generational step. For the moment energy is generally derived from a carbon base that has been the essential requirement for provisioning the current era. Its consumptive availability is linked to the comparatively short period of existence, its exhaustibility and human’s ability to use it effectively while seeking alternatives to travel forward.
The contending list of energy source and their motive application may be covered by:-
Fire, Coal, Water, Steam, Wind, Oil, Gas, Electricity, Electric Motor, Ion engine, Fusion power,
Internal combustion engine, Fusion engine, Jet engine, Quantum power, Gas / water / steam turbine, Quantum engine, Rotary engine. Gravitational flux? Nuclear power, Dark energy?
Perhaps looking at the main power source for motive energy derived from say steam, oil, gas, electric and hydrogen; all drive mechanical engines that might point to one area of limitation. Although those engines have been developed to a reliable and stable position, the mechanical elements used in producing motivation may have reached their technological pinnacle and the power sources upon which they rely on just now is not infinite. This then must point to a conundrum, how is technology to be pushed continually forward with limited energy availability? To get motive power output, energy has to go in which is a conversion process that generally produces a non usable waste energy leading to stasis. A conversion situation of energy into motion that is ultimately not sustainable. It is possible that the consumption of the existing energy sources can be stretched out over a long time, say doubling its usability time to 100 years but eventually it will come to an end. There has been some chatter of using Helium 3 isotope for energy production but its rarity and the volume of source material required, which is not readily available on earth make it unlikely to be a serious contender for at least a century and likewise the Tokomak experiments have yet to deliver. These alone may be much too late to save the impact of planetary changes that will demand considerable more energy requirements. How ever the energy source could change, the application too its uses of it still remain constrained.
The must prolific power resources currently available are utilised in the internal combustion engine. It may be argue that it is the one form of motive power that has pushed economic flexibility of the world faster than any other to generate the affluent west and many other developed countries in the guise of the motor vehicle yet in its many sophisticated guises it is still a piston / combustion engine. As a comparison of development drive and technical improvement, take the short development stage of the jet engine a relative newer invention (disregarding Chinese black powdered rockets) but in a short time it has become a sophisticated piece of transportation hard ware and both these are only less than (in practical terms) a hundred years old with no great leap in their fundamental operating principles. Have they possibly reached their pinnacle of operation? However within a much shorter time scale the development of computerisation and the use to which it is put in the operation and control of such hardware has come about considerably faster, within a few decades.
The motivating power and drives of today of all forms of transportation, it could be said, are of relatively old inventions based on improved engineering principles. Although the mechanical and control mechanisms have improved efficiency, little of any new fundamental mechanical processes, that provide the driving force are in sight. There may be development in construction methods but practically nothing is likely to offer a breakthrough to a new form of motive power. New materials will be created that will allow the machines to function with greater efficiency or compactness but the underlying energy upon which the motive power relies will still be fuel of liquid gas / oil or solid carbon dependency. Fusion energy could offer the possibility of generating power for economically desalination of water cracking into abundant hydrogen and fresh water but this energy is still attached to mechanical engine drives and that seem unlikely to change even though there is the rapid development in solid state electronics, miniaturisation and nano engineering all of which will assist the drives of productive and motive capacities but will not change the essential mechanisation. A flight of fancy with an unscientific proposition may ask will there ever be scope for super conductivity, cold fusion, quantum or psionic engines; engines that may circumvent all the existing known laws, perhaps of say 2nd law of thermodynamic (entropy) or Newton 3rd law of motion etc? (Nothing is as it seem to be, with matter being constantly recreated, something has a plan that creation follows)
If there is going to be such a thing as a technological dead end caused by the inability to move beyond the ‘post industrial age’, or running out of raw material which impedes the generation of new productive methods, morph-able materials or advanced engine drives; there is also the possible beneficial affect of being forced to stabilise world population and attain an all environs sustainability. A utopian scenario, sustainability in all things that avoids entropy but one that has also an element of disappointment attached to it if one lift ones eyes to a star light sky.
For now though there are certain facets of technology that are developing faster that wo/mans ability to securely utilise and control, notable nano particle, genetic engineering, dna manipulations and the impact on the natural environment. Most governmental administrative guidance is lagging behind the use to which much of the newer technology is being put and its leakage to less governed countries cannot control the unforeseen applications of such technologies, all progressing forward with little public dialogue. It does raise the question, is it getting away from them?
In the thousands of years that modern humans have been on the scene, there has not been any dramatic increase in wo/man’s cognitive ability to make use of the etheric. Humans today may be no more intelligent or proactively conscious than the generations gone by. Sure today they know more things, have access to an abundance of information and material constructs but this is only available to a small percentage of the worlds population and even with all this ‘knowledge and intelligence’ humans still are no better at controlling there own being or interactions with others of differences. They seem unable at any stage to meld with the whole of wo/man kind for the benefit of all. Technical advancement had made living easier for some but certainly not all. It has expanded consumption for some but not all, it has many beneficial effects for some but not all, yet it is essentially an un-designed uncontrolled advancement process with a fundamental weakness in the ability to guide and provide resources for all earth saps. This increasing gap between those with access to energy and technology and those without it is being, in a small way, mitigated by handing out largess and technology mobility / transfers primarily for economic gains to the west; it does not solve endemic problems of the recipients rather it delays the day of their expungement, for their core depressive issues are never really addressed.
To compound this lack of inter species management there is a growing problem that perhaps is not being addressed and that is as technology increases – the technology and technical ability to understand just how or what the ‘machine’ do or how they work; becomes more specialised into very few comprehensible hands. Some if not many of the general population of the world, even those that currently have use of the benefits of technology, will be left further behind as they lack the acquisition ability or resources to educate to a level that gives them the entry into the benefits of greater technical achievements. It could even reach a stage within the ‘advanced’ users were only computer enhanced mechanism understand machines and will even get to the stage of creating and programming themselves as in AI. As a simple example of the developing gap in the application understanding and use of technology, take some common technological equipment like the motor vehicle or computer. Both these are used by great many of the worlds affluent population but the ability to repair or understand why or how they work is not known by most users and the knowledge gap is getting wider. Of course this may not matter if the knowledge of progress continues to trickle out and energy sources are consistently available to offer productive expansion, things will go on, but to compound the issue, take away the motive power be it derived from oil, gas etc that drive these things and how do you move them to keep technology motivated?
It may be that humans are locked into pursuing the inevitable by fore filling ones life with things through production, consumption, waste and degradation rather than to fore fill ones life without. For the time being meeting the demands of the moment are seen as the only way of using resources, fire fighting events rather than developing a cooperative all governmental plan for saps civilisation advancement.
If there is any up beat confidence to be extracted from the hypothetical technological dead end, it has to be in the hope that humans can either find the new energy sources that should be available to all before a natural ELE arrives or they re-engineers themselves to eradicate the self destructive gene for a homogenous one.
© Renot 2008
1103091518
In considering the advancements in technology and engineering over the past 200 years, the ability to have motive engineering beyond the invention of the wheel has been a crucial facet in the technical advancement of wo/man. It is this motive engineering that has generated the productive ability which has driven (in a literal sense) the industrial and (the often eulogised by economist) the ‘post industrial age’ (sic) leading to the technology enhanced era up to today. All of it has been at a rapid pace corresponding with the use of exploitable carbon energy.
Every form of technological, engineering and science based development has been built on the incremental process of advancements that has gone before. Throughout history all civilisations have only succeeded with the ability to utilise the inventiveness and ingenuity of the application of such incremental developments and these developments provided the foundations of human’s current material wellbeing, at least in the most ‘developed’ parts of the world. For those parts that have had the strength, administrative structures and resources to consolidate their position of affluence by exhaustive use of acquired energy, progress has been swift. The same is not true of existing less able or developed countries. Despite the undoubted successes of technology and society now, history also seems to show that within advancements there is the slow incremental trend of degenerative processes that eventually undermine the civilisation to force an innovative creation to a different social order and some of the forces are not of a ‘self determinate’ nature.
Such has been the speed of material progress over the past 150 years and with the undisputed accomplishments of such progression, that it has become taken as a fact of existence today by many academic people that such progress can be sustained for as long as there is the ability to acquire knowledge that can be put to use. Such advancement and development that has been debatably rapid, dependant on which elements of development one considers, has to a great extent only been possible with the utilisation of abundant energy and although the raw material of energy production is becoming constrained actually or economically, the supposition is that with the application of a similar drive of inventiveness, that a energy crunch can be overcome and will allow technological advancement to be maintained. This view has often been expressed by those that have a wish to counter the opinion that an energy crunch is in fact looming and are not, as yet, overly concerned with either the evidence of sinking sustainability or detrimental environmental impact. Both views of plenty vs. replacement energy sources carry penalties primarily of a social demographic nature that will be disruptive to all countries as different balance of powers are defined.
Assuming that a substitute energy form can be found different from a carbon cycle and it is by no means certain that one can be developed within a time scale that will avoid a energy crash, or for it to be of a form that has the flexibility of perhaps oil to continue scientific advances; were does the advancement take humans when there is one fundamental element of advancement that has not changed; wo/man itself? Can technological advancement continue without end and still be meaningful to human’s existence?
The likely broad application of genetic engineering, social selectivity, DNA manipulation, material morph manipulation and nano constructs all of which are at an early stage of potential; will all rely on the continuation of a secure energy source and unrestrained technological advancement. Using historic trends, there does seem to be a steady incremental progression in developing such technologies that can only take place once the previous accumulated links are put in place. Such advancing steps are necessary to produce the possible enhancement of humans own abilities and smart energy utilisation for new mouldable materials to be developed that are used in the next generational step. For the moment energy is generally derived from a carbon base that has been the essential requirement for provisioning the current era. Its consumptive availability is linked to the comparatively short period of existence, its exhaustibility and human’s ability to use it effectively while seeking alternatives to travel forward.
The contending list of energy source and their motive application may be covered by:-
Fire, Coal, Water, Steam, Wind, Oil, Gas, Electricity, Electric Motor, Ion engine, Fusion power,
Internal combustion engine, Fusion engine, Jet engine, Quantum power, Gas / water / steam turbine, Quantum engine, Rotary engine. Gravitational flux? Nuclear power, Dark energy?
Perhaps looking at the main power source for motive energy derived from say steam, oil, gas, electric and hydrogen; all drive mechanical engines that might point to one area of limitation. Although those engines have been developed to a reliable and stable position, the mechanical elements used in producing motivation may have reached their technological pinnacle and the power sources upon which they rely on just now is not infinite. This then must point to a conundrum, how is technology to be pushed continually forward with limited energy availability? To get motive power output, energy has to go in which is a conversion process that generally produces a non usable waste energy leading to stasis. A conversion situation of energy into motion that is ultimately not sustainable. It is possible that the consumption of the existing energy sources can be stretched out over a long time, say doubling its usability time to 100 years but eventually it will come to an end. There has been some chatter of using Helium 3 isotope for energy production but its rarity and the volume of source material required, which is not readily available on earth make it unlikely to be a serious contender for at least a century and likewise the Tokomak experiments have yet to deliver. These alone may be much too late to save the impact of planetary changes that will demand considerable more energy requirements. How ever the energy source could change, the application too its uses of it still remain constrained.
The must prolific power resources currently available are utilised in the internal combustion engine. It may be argue that it is the one form of motive power that has pushed economic flexibility of the world faster than any other to generate the affluent west and many other developed countries in the guise of the motor vehicle yet in its many sophisticated guises it is still a piston / combustion engine. As a comparison of development drive and technical improvement, take the short development stage of the jet engine a relative newer invention (disregarding Chinese black powdered rockets) but in a short time it has become a sophisticated piece of transportation hard ware and both these are only less than (in practical terms) a hundred years old with no great leap in their fundamental operating principles. Have they possibly reached their pinnacle of operation? However within a much shorter time scale the development of computerisation and the use to which it is put in the operation and control of such hardware has come about considerably faster, within a few decades.
The motivating power and drives of today of all forms of transportation, it could be said, are of relatively old inventions based on improved engineering principles. Although the mechanical and control mechanisms have improved efficiency, little of any new fundamental mechanical processes, that provide the driving force are in sight. There may be development in construction methods but practically nothing is likely to offer a breakthrough to a new form of motive power. New materials will be created that will allow the machines to function with greater efficiency or compactness but the underlying energy upon which the motive power relies will still be fuel of liquid gas / oil or solid carbon dependency. Fusion energy could offer the possibility of generating power for economically desalination of water cracking into abundant hydrogen and fresh water but this energy is still attached to mechanical engine drives and that seem unlikely to change even though there is the rapid development in solid state electronics, miniaturisation and nano engineering all of which will assist the drives of productive and motive capacities but will not change the essential mechanisation. A flight of fancy with an unscientific proposition may ask will there ever be scope for super conductivity, cold fusion, quantum or psionic engines; engines that may circumvent all the existing known laws, perhaps of say 2nd law of thermodynamic (entropy) or Newton 3rd law of motion etc? (Nothing is as it seem to be, with matter being constantly recreated, something has a plan that creation follows)
If there is going to be such a thing as a technological dead end caused by the inability to move beyond the ‘post industrial age’, or running out of raw material which impedes the generation of new productive methods, morph-able materials or advanced engine drives; there is also the possible beneficial affect of being forced to stabilise world population and attain an all environs sustainability. A utopian scenario, sustainability in all things that avoids entropy but one that has also an element of disappointment attached to it if one lift ones eyes to a star light sky.
For now though there are certain facets of technology that are developing faster that wo/mans ability to securely utilise and control, notable nano particle, genetic engineering, dna manipulations and the impact on the natural environment. Most governmental administrative guidance is lagging behind the use to which much of the newer technology is being put and its leakage to less governed countries cannot control the unforeseen applications of such technologies, all progressing forward with little public dialogue. It does raise the question, is it getting away from them?
In the thousands of years that modern humans have been on the scene, there has not been any dramatic increase in wo/man’s cognitive ability to make use of the etheric. Humans today may be no more intelligent or proactively conscious than the generations gone by. Sure today they know more things, have access to an abundance of information and material constructs but this is only available to a small percentage of the worlds population and even with all this ‘knowledge and intelligence’ humans still are no better at controlling there own being or interactions with others of differences. They seem unable at any stage to meld with the whole of wo/man kind for the benefit of all. Technical advancement had made living easier for some but certainly not all. It has expanded consumption for some but not all, it has many beneficial effects for some but not all, yet it is essentially an un-designed uncontrolled advancement process with a fundamental weakness in the ability to guide and provide resources for all earth saps. This increasing gap between those with access to energy and technology and those without it is being, in a small way, mitigated by handing out largess and technology mobility / transfers primarily for economic gains to the west; it does not solve endemic problems of the recipients rather it delays the day of their expungement, for their core depressive issues are never really addressed.
To compound this lack of inter species management there is a growing problem that perhaps is not being addressed and that is as technology increases – the technology and technical ability to understand just how or what the ‘machine’ do or how they work; becomes more specialised into very few comprehensible hands. Some if not many of the general population of the world, even those that currently have use of the benefits of technology, will be left further behind as they lack the acquisition ability or resources to educate to a level that gives them the entry into the benefits of greater technical achievements. It could even reach a stage within the ‘advanced’ users were only computer enhanced mechanism understand machines and will even get to the stage of creating and programming themselves as in AI. As a simple example of the developing gap in the application understanding and use of technology, take some common technological equipment like the motor vehicle or computer. Both these are used by great many of the worlds affluent population but the ability to repair or understand why or how they work is not known by most users and the knowledge gap is getting wider. Of course this may not matter if the knowledge of progress continues to trickle out and energy sources are consistently available to offer productive expansion, things will go on, but to compound the issue, take away the motive power be it derived from oil, gas etc that drive these things and how do you move them to keep technology motivated?
It may be that humans are locked into pursuing the inevitable by fore filling ones life with things through production, consumption, waste and degradation rather than to fore fill ones life without. For the time being meeting the demands of the moment are seen as the only way of using resources, fire fighting events rather than developing a cooperative all governmental plan for saps civilisation advancement.
If there is any up beat confidence to be extracted from the hypothetical technological dead end, it has to be in the hope that humans can either find the new energy sources that should be available to all before a natural ELE arrives or they re-engineers themselves to eradicate the self destructive gene for a homogenous one.
© Renot 2008
1103091518
posted by Renot at 8:34 am
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