The Environmental Beginning.
The Environmental Beginning.
As I sit here looking out of a window I see, I think, for the first time in my life the mounting effect of the greenhouse debate. Many of the trees that surround us are still in full leaf, leaf that is turning to many shades of golden russet brown, which is a delight to see but today is mid November! In any other year that I can recall the autumn storms would have taken the leaves off these same trees and stripped them bare ready for winter. Now this year those same trees are hanging onto their leaves to provide a display of colour that is ominously most pleasing.
In some way the event which I see is a visible sign of the changing climate, which although interesting is a little disturbing, disturbing in that it is a very confirmatory effect that cannot be missed. Over the past few year we have had a number unusual seasonal variation, very hot days, mild winters, heavy rain to long dry spells; all of which, in being in this country, one can take as part of the debatable ‘normal’ weather pattern but this prolonged autumn effect is different.
By now November should be much colder with temperature in the regular low 10c but we have temperatures in the teens to low 20’s. There has been so far the odd cold 0c night that is eventually taken over by a warm day. As someone that likes the sun and the warmth it offers, it is rather pleasant to have this seasonal change yet the climatic uncertainty is confusing the plant life to the extent that it does not know if it is preparing for winter or spring. And spring is in evidence already with new green shoots starting before a winter is here.
The debate over the green house effect and the causes of it have been going on for some time focusing on the resent efforts of the Kyoto agreement that is largely driven by Europe and countered by the lack of interest from Canada, Australia, USA, China, India, these latter countries that have become the biggest polluters.
Although it has been argued by some that climate change is a normal long term fluctuation; with the increasing level of Co2, its uncertain effect on global conditions and as the natural effects have caused localised limited damage, it has been possible to react slowly or ignore just what is happening. Even the Stern report that examined the economic damage that would accrue from not taking mitigating actions, fails to be forceful enough to draw in the biggest polluters to pass comment. More interested government are starting to ramp up the possible actions to help mitigate the long term affects, which must be right, but without the big polluters such action is neutered.
There is looking out of the window instilled in me a sense that a tipping point has already been reached and this is the years in which it has started. From now on it may be that in some parts of the world it will get noticeably hotter, climate will be more volatile and bio sphere less secure. The assumption is that some countries may benefit while others suffer, with the expectation that this will impact more forcibly on poorer nation of the earth. This may not be the case.
Northern Europe has benefited from the Atlantic conveyor; the worry is that evidence shows it is slowing down. If it should stop within the next decade then Europe will be in real trouble for given its latitude it is likely that it will get considerable colder over winter months. And as there is already an issue with power supplies, it does create an interesting problem, how to keep warm? In addition, with the possible increase in summer temperatures, if a dryer condition prevails; further difficulties will be experienced like water shortage, crop and manufacturing reduction,
Paranoid? Should the overall earth temperature increase probably at a faster rate than currently anticipated sea level will rise to 20mt, from 2026 this will not be able to be ignored by any country with low laying coastal plains. The disruption will have a profound and long lasting affect on every aspect of political and economic life.
There has in the UK been a tendency to place nuclear energy production on coastal areas and as there has been no decision as yet on how to fill the energy ‘gap’ with possibly new nuclear facilities, should a similar strategy be taken the scenario is not promising.
In this context this government, being very concerned about the economics of nuclear power, is prevaricating on how to move forward. It has to decide on renewing the nuclear weapons stock and how or when to build new nuclear generating capacity. With this dithering it is in the process of creating a nuclear fiasco.
In looking at the most important issue power, it is abundantly obvious that the UK is in a precarious predicament re coal, gas, electrics, and ‘green power’ it does not have enough. In the near future it will diminish, external sources that are beyond control may be available subject to price and if the climate turns against them, discomfort all round.
To highlight the dilemma and uncertainty of direction Mr Alistair Darling MP, Secretary of State for Trade and Industry in his Energy Review – Statement in London on 11 July 2006 said :-
“It will be for the private sector to initiate, fund, construct and operate new nuclear plants and cover the cost of decommissioning and their full share of long-term waste management costs.”
As a statement of such blind ignorance and profound consequence one does not have to dig deep to understand the implications of abrogating responsibility as has been proven already. The private sector will not take open ended financial obligation unless there is a distinct price advantage or cost is underwritten. So until the selling cost of energy increases to such a great extent to cover all cost as indicated by AD statement, perhaps in a situation that means there is little other choice of energy provision other than nuclear, it will be impossible for nuclear to be in the hands of the private sector and make it viable. Given the dire presumption of energy decline, the cost implication to future generation, environmental impact and the urgency, the government has no business throwing a strategic requirement to the justifiably maligned PPP (public private partnership). Would it be so generous with the control of nuclear weapons?
There are many factors that affect the climate of the earth. Some of the factors associated to physics can be extrapolated to suggest a possible format for climate change but no one really knows what is about to happen. Weather patens around the world will change; the assumption is towards a hotter world however if there is greater cloud cover might this precipitate a new glacial period instead with a higher light reflection and dimming sun?
It might have taken 500 years to reach this stage of human induced climatic change; it could take 2000 years to start to a rebalance it, assuming humans have some control over the process and the runaway point can be stopped. If not, for humans a world shaping event has started, heaven help them and the trees are not the first to know.
© Renot 2006
10.11.06
As I sit here looking out of a window I see, I think, for the first time in my life the mounting effect of the greenhouse debate. Many of the trees that surround us are still in full leaf, leaf that is turning to many shades of golden russet brown, which is a delight to see but today is mid November! In any other year that I can recall the autumn storms would have taken the leaves off these same trees and stripped them bare ready for winter. Now this year those same trees are hanging onto their leaves to provide a display of colour that is ominously most pleasing.
In some way the event which I see is a visible sign of the changing climate, which although interesting is a little disturbing, disturbing in that it is a very confirmatory effect that cannot be missed. Over the past few year we have had a number unusual seasonal variation, very hot days, mild winters, heavy rain to long dry spells; all of which, in being in this country, one can take as part of the debatable ‘normal’ weather pattern but this prolonged autumn effect is different.
By now November should be much colder with temperature in the regular low 10c but we have temperatures in the teens to low 20’s. There has been so far the odd cold 0c night that is eventually taken over by a warm day. As someone that likes the sun and the warmth it offers, it is rather pleasant to have this seasonal change yet the climatic uncertainty is confusing the plant life to the extent that it does not know if it is preparing for winter or spring. And spring is in evidence already with new green shoots starting before a winter is here.
The debate over the green house effect and the causes of it have been going on for some time focusing on the resent efforts of the Kyoto agreement that is largely driven by Europe and countered by the lack of interest from Canada, Australia, USA, China, India, these latter countries that have become the biggest polluters.
Although it has been argued by some that climate change is a normal long term fluctuation; with the increasing level of Co2, its uncertain effect on global conditions and as the natural effects have caused localised limited damage, it has been possible to react slowly or ignore just what is happening. Even the Stern report that examined the economic damage that would accrue from not taking mitigating actions, fails to be forceful enough to draw in the biggest polluters to pass comment. More interested government are starting to ramp up the possible actions to help mitigate the long term affects, which must be right, but without the big polluters such action is neutered.
There is looking out of the window instilled in me a sense that a tipping point has already been reached and this is the years in which it has started. From now on it may be that in some parts of the world it will get noticeably hotter, climate will be more volatile and bio sphere less secure. The assumption is that some countries may benefit while others suffer, with the expectation that this will impact more forcibly on poorer nation of the earth. This may not be the case.
Northern Europe has benefited from the Atlantic conveyor; the worry is that evidence shows it is slowing down. If it should stop within the next decade then Europe will be in real trouble for given its latitude it is likely that it will get considerable colder over winter months. And as there is already an issue with power supplies, it does create an interesting problem, how to keep warm? In addition, with the possible increase in summer temperatures, if a dryer condition prevails; further difficulties will be experienced like water shortage, crop and manufacturing reduction,
Paranoid? Should the overall earth temperature increase probably at a faster rate than currently anticipated sea level will rise to 20mt, from 2026 this will not be able to be ignored by any country with low laying coastal plains. The disruption will have a profound and long lasting affect on every aspect of political and economic life.
There has in the UK been a tendency to place nuclear energy production on coastal areas and as there has been no decision as yet on how to fill the energy ‘gap’ with possibly new nuclear facilities, should a similar strategy be taken the scenario is not promising.
In this context this government, being very concerned about the economics of nuclear power, is prevaricating on how to move forward. It has to decide on renewing the nuclear weapons stock and how or when to build new nuclear generating capacity. With this dithering it is in the process of creating a nuclear fiasco.
In looking at the most important issue power, it is abundantly obvious that the UK is in a precarious predicament re coal, gas, electrics, and ‘green power’ it does not have enough. In the near future it will diminish, external sources that are beyond control may be available subject to price and if the climate turns against them, discomfort all round.
To highlight the dilemma and uncertainty of direction Mr Alistair Darling MP, Secretary of State for Trade and Industry in his Energy Review – Statement in London on 11 July 2006 said :-
“It will be for the private sector to initiate, fund, construct and operate new nuclear plants and cover the cost of decommissioning and their full share of long-term waste management costs.”
As a statement of such blind ignorance and profound consequence one does not have to dig deep to understand the implications of abrogating responsibility as has been proven already. The private sector will not take open ended financial obligation unless there is a distinct price advantage or cost is underwritten. So until the selling cost of energy increases to such a great extent to cover all cost as indicated by AD statement, perhaps in a situation that means there is little other choice of energy provision other than nuclear, it will be impossible for nuclear to be in the hands of the private sector and make it viable. Given the dire presumption of energy decline, the cost implication to future generation, environmental impact and the urgency, the government has no business throwing a strategic requirement to the justifiably maligned PPP (public private partnership). Would it be so generous with the control of nuclear weapons?
There are many factors that affect the climate of the earth. Some of the factors associated to physics can be extrapolated to suggest a possible format for climate change but no one really knows what is about to happen. Weather patens around the world will change; the assumption is towards a hotter world however if there is greater cloud cover might this precipitate a new glacial period instead with a higher light reflection and dimming sun?
It might have taken 500 years to reach this stage of human induced climatic change; it could take 2000 years to start to a rebalance it, assuming humans have some control over the process and the runaway point can be stopped. If not, for humans a world shaping event has started, heaven help them and the trees are not the first to know.
© Renot 2006
10.11.06
posted by Renot at 6:15 am
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