The robots, Are here.

The robots, Are here.

For a long as wo/man has had the ability to produce things that aid and maximises their efforts in their  survival, there has always been the inclination to make the things that are useful, better at whatever function they were devised to undertake. It has at times been an incremental development of an artefact, improving its speed of production, a different way of making the item or an alternative use to which it has been put. Occasional there has been a rapid step change in different directions and wholly new items have been made to meet the demands of a new or additional requirement. Inventiveness has allowed humans to expand and multiply to acquire and consume more of the earth’s resources and over a period of 1.2m years past, its population may have been less than 10K.  At ten thousand years ago its population had grown from that estimation to 10ml, and then jumping to some to 7.5 bln. of today. This is a population which has by no means spread to every corner of the earth but in looking at every easy habitable major land mass the impact of such expansion is clearly evident. The most impressive rate of growth has occurred from the 17^th century estimated at a world population of 1bn humans increasing up to 6bn in just 300 years. This over a period in which there was ‘unlimited’ space and available resources; with incremental accumulation of knowledge, ingenuity / inventiveness to solve problems and an enhance application to productive processes, had allowed such rapid expansions and growth to take place. 

This expansion of human activity has promulgated a variety of specialism to come into play. Civilisation slowly moved from a wholly dependency on hunter gatherer, nomadic, agriculture, article production, to large scale manufacture, commerce, services and leisure with a diversity of administrative functionality to be immersed within it all. Very little of this development was planned, one might suggest it was just a lucky opportune ‘systemic organic’ drive with occasionally inflicted setbacks and sporadic force stimulations giving impetus to overall material progressions for the more aggressively positioned cultures.  It is noted in this, that the spread of ‘developments’ has not been homogeneous throughout the world nor has the benefits or wealth been enthusiastically shared, to the extent that there is clearly an obvious extensive unstable segregation between nations, sectors and individuals within each country; evident in the observable poverty that afflicts the majority of the world’s population. A population that does not have access to the best of a modern society’s current offering, or are they likely to be able to gain measurable step improvements for the foreseeable future. With a huge variation of resources acquisition and consumptive capacity and an unreliable immature foundation for self sustainability, it is quite possible that the resources that powered development over that past 300 years will not be as bountiful even over the next 100 years.

One is not alone in laying out the obvious scenarios that will limit human development over the next 300 years, during which time there is bound to be an unavoidable collapse in the advancing inclination of human endeavours.  The dawn of the 21^st century has already fired one of its first warnings, that there is a civilisation impasse arising which is exposing the fragility of key assumption that underpin the structure of cultures and collective ideas concurrent with the organised administrative functions that  are endemic to the nature of modern societies.

Although a long time in gestation, the evidence being amalgamated and interpreted for the recent past ten decades does, with a degree of certain lobbyist self interest dissent, indicate that the global environment is shifting at a very fast rate. There is little reason to be elaborative in listing the well rehearsed aspects of the threatening problems, suffice to say that a combination of environmental issues are not progressing swiftly enough to the fore on the political landscape, or are they taken on at a global level to enlist a unified position of nations responses. There have been tentative steps with co2 ‘greenhouse’ gas but for the major player like the US, UK, Russia, China etc there has been resistance to doing too much too quickly for fear of damaging their economic outlook, reliant as it is on keeping the market and consumer economy moving to their advantage. In this context there seems to be a disconnect between the jaunty global financial market actions and governments being economical to the reality of the ongoing state of world trades decline after the CC in 2007/8 with the effect of the creeping lack of resourcefulness of certain elements of population. This dichotomy may be overriding the certainty of the long term pressing damage likely from the multifaceted environmental ELE.

All though there is a raising tension of what the world can produce (raw materials etc.) and the ability to globally consume, there is a growing mismatch between what is produced and the ability to afford to consume. Consumerism (Applicable to the vociferous appetite of ‘developed’ nations) is fuelled by overall unremitting debt. Due to the failing of unmanaged economic systems, the resourcefulness ability is being eroded for some people and is denying them affluent participation as consumers and an expectation of equitable social advancement that is moving out of their reach. With technology productive overcapacity, less people are required to produce goods and un-resourced people may not acquire consuming goods. There may not even be enough raw resources ‘too go around’. On this basis it is apparent, being rudimentary, that the human population growth has outgrown, in its multiplicity, its usefulness. The world is carrying far too many people, far too many of whom are barely at a subsistence level, unable to be supported by their own nation and hardly influenced by the disinterest of global machinations undertaken by the powerful. At times there is a call for population control by some element of the affluent west but this is aimed at the less ‘advanced’ corners of the world and not unreasonably they flash back and draw the obvious accusation that the problem of diminishing resources and environment degradation have been largely caused by the effluent profligate west; therefore start there with controls! This is overlooking the trend in the west of established indigenous individuals, for the imperativeness of selfish (quality of life?) personnel affluence to produce a reduction in the birth rate, countered to some extent by non indigenous resident producing, on average, more offspring’s overriding the indigenous birth rate but aiding to a desired ‘replacement’ rate. A situation of ‘replacement’ that is not required in undeveloped nations – babies are easy and inexpensive to produce but very expensive to nurture without capital.    

Factually Earths consumable resources are finite; it is continuous supply vs. demand or constricted demand vs. supply and it is just a matter of time when resources are diminished and then become too expensive or rare for general acquisition, recycling or disposal; easy consumption is forced to be retrenched. Of immediate importance to the growth of the earth’s population, apart from the inability to distribute self sustainment and nourishment for the impoverished nations, are the two problems of energy and water. Everything of this era, throughout the world has a reliance on the availability of energy driving every electrical and mechanical artefact; with the exception of very small discrete locations, nowhere is there any human habitation unencumbered from technical indications indicative to the current era, to continue this an energy source is required. To this view is the issue of the deteriorating supply of fresh water, essential for life yet it is compressing against the population growth of certain nations and with both these issue there is very little expectation that an uncomplicated solution is achievable prior to a (probably limited) resource, environmental, energy ELE.

Into this mix of uncertainty is the futurist dream of some technologist of an application to industry and commerce, for the arrival of autonomous robots! Discussed in development enclaves, very little practical planning is being undertaken by the developed nations on the impact or desirability of progressing onto a all encompassing utility use of robots; this dream is lacking any formative assessment of what a robot is to be in form, capacity, limitation, impact, or acceptability in an industrial / commercial / market consumerist orientated world. To the ambiguous question, what are robots; there is a limit bench mark indicative with short term use of that word attached to the term robotics as is applicable to industry.

The use of ‘robots’ in factories has replaced labour and accelerated the production processes, these  robots are an extension of mechanical automation that has been rolled out un-resisted for years and are programmed to do a task of programmers biding. They undertake productive tasks that may be mundane, repetitive, delicate, or dangerous; ‘laboured’ jobs to the limits of their construction. They may do things faster, with no fatigue, no dissent, no sustenance, no intelligence or rewards and are absolutely compilable until re-tasked, damaged or powered off. For the commercial sectors the disembodiment familiarity of robotics is experienced in the application of computerisation into every field of human services interactions; all financial sectors, insurance, all administrative data control, diagnostics, algorithms analysis, ‘back offices’ process etc. to the increasing ubiquitous self service applications previously filled by the utilisation of intelligent human hands.

This freeing of labour from repetitive ‘mundane’ tasks has not resulted in a greater spread of more affordable leisure time or disposable incomes. It has shifted the scope of skilled and knowledge based requirements, disposing of some skill application for simpler labour requirements and raising specialism for higher knowledge professions. Trade labour, some customer personal services, large labour intensive jobs in production and administration has given way to faster more efficient and productive output with higher profitability, but in doing so labour flexibility is generating spare labour availability which to some extent has recently, in the west, been opportunistically used in the creation (for its expansive absorptions) of this flexible resource by the new ‘Gig’ (1) slave economy via the imposition of doubtful self employed status for those workers that fall into this growing ‘service’ type economy. The availability of surplus labour has also driven down the historic trend of wages keeping pace with intractable inflation (whatever the source) and on some measures incomes have not advanced in real term for 30 years. 

The current drive is to mate up the advancing computerisation into artificial intelligence and some form of mechanoids that could be called an autonomous robotic system. There is a vision to have this thing being at a level of ‘intelligence’ and have ‘programmed’ comprehension; to have self mobility or at least be within system that can operate more humans resourced functions. This posits that it will be faster, more reliable, overall economically efficient with an undetectable interface to humans in output abilities, exceptionally useful and robust.

For the moment there are a great number of insurmountable constructive issues to be able to put into operationally a fully functional independent autonomous ‘intelligent’ robot that can look and mirror a human. Could there be eventually a robot in humanoid like shape and overall appearance, really? There is nothing within a current scope that will get close to this possibility however the continuing attempt to do so is debatable, and seriously questionable. The complexity involved in the ‘build’ is enormous but of unquestionable doubt is the immeasurable effect on all unprepared social constructs. So although it likely to be a long time out for any form of technical ability to build an imagined, autonomous, mobile, humanoid AI; it will be possible to create an undetectable static interactive presence, controlling a realm of functions that the technical age is morphing into. The prime issue still is, if it were possible to insert sufficient expansive working parameters for ‘it’ to have all human abilities, (apart from mobility) maybe at a greater level, does one want it to be more intelligent, more Inventive or to have senses and ultimately be self aware?

Humans are hardly able to understand their own motivations and still have great difficult in building relationships with any that are not fitted within an ‘acceptable’ frame of colour, sex, nationality, ethnicity, background, social standing, rich or poor. Humans are not particularly homogeneous, spatially proprioceptive, intelligent or intuitive either, yes they have the resources of greater knowledge and information about things, emotions and senses with some comprehension of how the body and brain work that holds the mind environs but this is far from being able to transfer the whole human condition to a robotic functionary.

Assume for the moment that autonomous, fully functioning AI hominoids were available, on par to or superior to a ‘normal’ human, is it really possible that it would be unconditionally acceptable even on the basis of having integrated the “robotic laws” and a terminal switch? Given the uncertainty and survival traits of the human condition, it is unlikely that for them being in danger of becoming more superfluous and redundant, with no compensating outlets, that it could be a transitionally smooth state; however this is the ultimate direction of robotics travel, to have machines carrying out all ‘mundane’ tasks on demand; a pliable willing undemonstrative slave. The desire to procure as much as possible within a labour free productive and service provision businesses environment, is driven by extracting more from less (driving up profits) and with those displaced, moved from valuable employment being relegated to thrifty consumers locked out of economic inclusiveness and encouraged into a burgeoning Gig economy, if they can afford it.

        

All the above is just procrastinating fodder for the future which does contain some unexpressed assured assumptions that may not match up with an actuality of events. Any foreseeable ELE precursor would certainly modify options. But for now why go through all that trouble of technical inventiveness limitation, probably unlikely to be successful, when soon it will be much easier to replicate a human body either in vitro or via the usual procreation method and engineer into ‘it’ either limiting adaptable human features, or enhance it with desired alternative species abilities to be possibly more durable that suits specific tasks. As they would be wo/man-made, manufactured by design, in unlimited numbers, cheap to produce and resource sustainable, they could be seen to be conveniently disposable etc. Of course there would have to be an orchestrated process of cultural indoctrination of acceptability in the use of such things, along the lines of “them and us”.

Which then, would be less or more frightening or dangerous, the manufactured hard material AI robot of fanciful sci-fi dreams or the soft humanoid roboticised obedient slaves? The unresolved problem as one might see is that they would require having a bit of shelter, minimally clothed and economically fed to keep them functioning as one would like and not need overly investing too much stock care; after all they are disposable.

(1)‘Gig’  Taken from the musical entertainment field were individual or a group would perform at a function describing it as a ‘gig’. The decision to undertake the gig was entirely under the performers control and they sometimes played free or were paid a performance rate by the venue. Often an informal arrangement between both parties and used by some as a musician hobby outlet, entertainment provider; apart from turning up for the gig there was usually no ongoing commitments or fiduciary obligations.

© Renot

2005171555