Killing Capitalists, Idiomatically?

Well now, is this not a surprise? One of those events that have a irritating inclination of arising out of nowhere, well not exactly nowhere, this was inevitably going to occur at some stage in the 21^st century although it is not the ‘Big One’, one of the five probabilities (1). There were ignored warnings that there was something afoot festering in China however this event has taken over most political agendas and this incident has direct implications on what one did intend to write at the start of the above heading. One was winding up to have a general seethe, as is ones wants, at the continued failure of governments to be considerable more aggressive in the forums like G7 and G20 to put in place curtailing step on the gratuitous greed of finance markets to extract unjustified financial returns at the same time doing all it can to avoid / evade, by any legal or duplicitous means, legitimate taxation that supports the whole civil structures. A corporate tax revenue take which has become remarkable historically low at the same time all the financial sectors keep expecting growth to be always increasing and unfettered by unhelpful legislations allowing intensification of the gambling machinery of  – stocks, shares and currency speculation etc.

As an un-renowned expert in saps cultured ignorance in its own fallibility; it (saps) assume that in times of plenty, affluence, peace, good governance with popular legitimacy and global interrelatedness stability; that when ‘things’ become easily manageable and continually dependable; then unnecessary expenditure that does not serve the extraction of wealth for distribution to the holders of superior capital, can be retracted for use ‘elsewhere’. 

There is, inescapably, a major problem with global economics just now based on why productivity is so low, interest rates are flat-lining, ‘recordable’ unemployment in the UK is low but higher elsewhere (Europe) and instilled in certain age / skill  sectors. Consumers’ spending is discretionary cost sensitive and selective, with personal borrowing high again and commercial property asset values and yields are suspect. Income levels have not increased nor regained anything like the losses that have occurred since 2000, this some right wing economist say, is due to over supple of labour and inabilities of the labour to price itself into the ‘markets. The boom in the gig, low pay, and insecure jobs would seem to show it can (has) been done albeit this disregards the labourer’s living standards, a feature comparable with slave labour which is always beneficial to the rentier markets. In some respect this overall economic problem is taken as a result of the CC in 2007/8 giving the drag on economies over the past 12 years. In view of this one has looked to find any pronouncement from bullish economist that are willing to expound a view that everything is as it should be; market forces rule OK, supply and demand are invincibly correct and will re-establish ‘normality’ after shaking out of all the zombie businesses that clough up the economic system by locking up or hoarding capital that should be put to better use elsewhere. One may be not looking in the right areas and perhaps not appreciating the erudite technicality of the science (2) behind the usual right-wing economist but the clear indications of support for rampant right-wing capitalist economics for the start of this new century is not obvious. On the contrary the masters of the universe are helpless to explain satisfactorily what is happening to the developed nations economy (it is the famous “why did no one see this coming scenario”) and one assumes they are trying to redraft suitable logic for why continued optimism in some form of sustainable economic buoyancy, should be apparent but if there are erudite reasons for confidence, it is indistinct. Even the laissez faire economist of young or old like (3) may have difficulties in presenting sound sensible ‘economic’ propositions reflecting socially rational acceptable realities to keep their form of capitalism alive during market chaos.

There are a number of light readable books that take a stringent accusatory look at the failures of governments handling of the financial sectors, constructed bad policies, politically dogmatic driven ideology and the impacts from those actions that are rolling through the decades being inflicted onto an ignorant populations. As an example, if interested, try any of one’s selection but there are plenty of others on shelves (4) and the book ‘Going South’ is particular interesting in so far as what it covers is still very pertinent now and for beyond 2020 yet to counter all this you may have to dig deep to locate any recent optimistic economist to convince ardently, that everything is as it should be and all for the better, at this stage of the “economic cycle”. Although it is a difficult read / comprehend, unless you are into stats try David G. Blanchflowers’ book “Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone”? This like others may offer a view as to why the financial game is stalled but more importantly with the factual numerical details, the damages being done to social fabric, health, peoples living standards and ‘prosperous’ expectations.

The continuation of created compounded degradations, caused by bad governments’ policy just on its own, might eventually lead to dire events (1). Is this being too alarmist? Only if one ignores the existential dangers the world is to cope with now and its blossoming forces, which it is largely unprepared for and to which, to use the phrase; “No-one seen it coming”, just proves “events” are an unscripted nuisance, yet another one to add to the “ides of March”.

And here comes one of those events Covid19, (5) a nice short memorable term to describe the cause of the 2020 pandemic. As the hazard unfolds there are some people of the population that retain a certain amount of secure arrogance on the basis that they think, thus far, with assumptions, that they and their own will not be affected, taking the view that the Covid19 is little more than 'general' seasonal flu, (it is winter/spring after all) on this basis they assume they are not greatly at risk. Perhaps being young, healthy, well nourished and somewhat affluent may create a sense of casual bravado to such a hazard and after all “only” on average some 8k people die each year to flu, these being older people with underlying issues. But this attitude is probably derived from not having had really bad flu in the past and as is the case there is often (an assumption one makes here) that many people confuse the common cold from which they get some recovery after 48 hrs, whereas flu is a 7-14 day or longer recover phase. In any case this virus of flu, its symptoms and prognosis is more perilous with those with compromised established health but to think that efforts just now aim to limit deaths to an estimate of 20k, to be reluctantly acceptable, is a little short of the wholly unacceptable 250k plus scenario quietly played down.

There was a certain laxity in response to this outbreak caused by China being suppressive, dishonest and with an initial view countries took that this was just another form of flu, albeit it was a new variant. But to which there was no global population immunity. It soon had countries scrambling put in place controls but from December to March it had reached every part of the developed world, with, it is clear, much more to follow. From this came a degree of a disparaging sense against those they consider 'panicking' and acting to take steps to ensure a degree of safe, healthy, comfort; overlooking the fact that mindless unconstructive panic is indeed unhelpful but useful directive panic is possibility a better and natural response to uncertainty in dangerous situations. It calls for action based on personal experience and knowledge to minimising risk, and aiding self-help-preservation, this action is more noticeable in a spectrum of people that may have had experience in ancient shortages, although they are possibly better prepared to adapt than a younger generation who are use to everything on time and instant, they are not endowed with ‘essentials’ to have restraint, they do panic.

One can detect that the government has panicked given the prognosis of deaths. It has thrown into harsh focus the straightjacket of austerity the HNS has been forced into and the lack of sufficient flexible resources required to cope with such volume emergency and it takes time to replace the lost intensive care units, hospital beds, medical and social care etc. Even with new legal emergency powers, it will take a month or more to build up necessary facilities, hence the call for containment, isolation and delay, with curtailment of personal liberty and shutdowns likely to last months. Action being taken under the said euphemism of fighting a war; the analogy with war is excessive, is where a great deal of productive ability is swapped to defense and attack, when it is and was ,equally important to keep as much normality with all pub's and shops etc open. But this is not such a war it is prejudiced with slow selective closures, indeterminate and confusing timing constraint, conflicted economic demands, panic buying, queuing for access to what is allowed to be available by people waiting outside an hour or more some tens of dozens meters long, offers more exposure  risk and raises psychological social damage. This ought to have been foreseen given JIT shopping and stock replenishment habits. As an aside one recalls a discussion with an emergency planning official involved in civil defuse exercises of the past. Everything was put in place, the scenario, the emergency services, the actors, the rescue / recover, the aftercare. All went well, “it was a great success”. “Lessons were learnt” based on one major city! ‘But, if it were to happen on a number of cities some of whom were reluctant then to run exercises and use up limited financial assets and resources, to  compared with today’s local authorities resources being considerably less; systemic collapse’. The country is not there yet and this may not be the Big One but it does give clear indication of the extensive life threatening, personal and economic damage that is taking place now and has to be tackled. It is a salutary experience on the range of interrelated ramifications that are exposed, which this government was and is blindly unaware of.

Who would have thought that a CDUP would have to adopt the sort of extraordinary measure that are counter to their long standing political philosophy of governmental laissez faire economic non-intervention. An absolute reversal in the idea that The Market can provide and handle anything to now see the government implementing a safety net for employees and business to the cost of £1trn? Recall the support intercession to the financial sectors, the CDUP initially refused to agree to and derided steps during the CC, preferring when gaining power to implementing unnecessary austerity. However here we are with BoJo leading the way with others like Gove, Mogg, et al supported by experts, which they previous castigated, imposing business and personal liberty restriction, of 3 and 12 week isolations and shutdowns, taking special powers and shaking the "magic money tree" for all its worth for the fighting fund. The special powers the government wants should not be an opportunity to slide through, as dictatorial governments tend to do, extensive long lasting controlling powers and they must be limited by a form of “sunset” parliamentary scrutiny provision, we will see. It is probable that the remedial actions required were slow react to the crises  in January with the delay in taking action, probable had more to do with saving treasuries’ financial resources to support the Brexit outlay and the subsequent cost of making it work towards the termination date and afterwards. Nothing was to interfere with “getting Brexit done” but as February progressed the prime worry was what will it do to Brexit plans? By March it was starkly clear that without sufficient HNS resources to call on, there was little choice but to gain time while a build up of capacity took place and identify ‘vectors of hot spot spreads. That the right decisions are belatedly being made, one can have little doubt even if there was a degree of the pressure to ‘copy cat actions’ driven by the evidence of Italy and Spain.

No democratic government could survive if it allowed unnecessary death to occur due to its own historic policy failure designs and if deaths can be kept to at or below 5% of compromised infected persons, or around season flu average of 2K – 8K, or limited to the higher assumed expected 20K (< >) deaths, it will be rightly assessed a great success; perhaps. But the astounding resource efforts required to tackle the disease, the initial financial outlay cost of £1.5Trn (?) to support individuals and the private sectors and the long term economic damage meshed into a ‘No Deal Brexit’? Will this give cause for all policy planners to “pucker up” for a very tempestuous outlook for thing to move back to normal after having impacted in many ways the assumptions of continuous stability on all dependent workers? This may be the only time when the CDUP Prime Minister, Cameron and sidekick Osborne’s insincere past call of “we are all in this together” might actually mean something now, as it is taken up by BoJo.

  

It does seem like an opportune instant to take a look at the effect that the current newly declared ‘pandemic’ is having on the sense of a stable continuum as it relates to the assumed steady progression of development for a culture, in so far as the stability of normal existence and its ongoing reliability is concerned with saps grasp of peaceful civilisation.

Not that this is any attempt to be vaguely prescriptive or prophetic as an indication of where the saps are going but it does show the weakness of many assumptions upon which they base their expectation of manageable reality, rather it gives a casual insight into the consequences of assumption and ill-considered action taken as a result of ingrained dogmas that serve the need of a selected powers and beliefs. The solution to the CC in 2007/8 was the creation and injection into the financial sectors of £500bn+. It did nothing for the underlying popular economy, was not invested in productive capacity, aided wealth creation for asset rich, subsidised the stock/ shares, bailed out banks to offload their bad lending practices, promoted austerity, made many people poorer and penalised savers. This time the money is going where it will do what is required, it is essential given the impact of the emergency action being enforced, inflicting the loss of employment, social dependency impact of the population and damage to small businesses. This financial rescue has to be done; grants, loans, taxes holiday/ deferment. Into this mix also look at the financial markets, stocks / shares taking fright, bank interest rate down to as near zero hitting savers (the country does not want savers) rewarding borrowers (yet again), smart money taking flight, (and finding it difficult to land) and banks yet again likely to gain bail-outs via credit guarantees that bank will push (seeking personal security for it, offloading their risk and eventual the scheme will fail) for which few business will be willing or able to afford when possibly looking into a future long recession and a Brexit effect post Jan 2021.

It is no mystery that at some stage question will be asked of this period after spending what might amount to overall £1.5trn; was it money well utilised? It may later be compared to the “Millennium Bug” that cost commerce £xbns worldwide to fend off a ‘computer date change danger’ that never happened. Now in this case if the death rate outturns to only the low ten thousand with prolonged unbearable business and social damage, will that be seen as a success or not value for money? Was the government panicked into ‘knee jerk’ reaction by the actions of China, Italy, Spain, to be seen itself to be doing something but hesitant due to the economic damage/cost as it would deflate their dream Brexit plans. After this massive ‘investment’ into supporting the extensive operators within the UK economy how can any future government be absent from similar strong intervention or avoid taking action on rouge market trading or continue to pander to the continuation of liaise faire economics and continue to privatise the public resources. It has become absolutely clear that businesses are not self sustaining and superior to any form of oversight, as with the banking sector, it is ultimately reliant on the backstop of the public purse and the spending capacity of the proletariat. The government will have to become ferocious on all business usury, tax avoidance, speculative market manipulations and the exportation of profit extracted from the UK economy avoiding UK tax, putting extracted profits into low tax havens.

The post recover cost required to be pulled back from all tax payers is going to very difficult and of course the emergency fiasco is only going to add to the travails of CDUP government plans but it is a very useful salutary experience in case the Big One comes and it is most unlikely that rescue package of similar nature will be done again. The idea of the uncontested free markets in all things and the robustness of capitalism to respond unbidden to calamity, on its own, is exposed for what it is, an illusion. Much of what has been done to mitigate the fear of substantial hardship within civil structures is to counter the construct of the rapaciousness of capitalist actions. Capitalism is ultimately dependent on the governments use or misuse of powers, calling on the tax payers public purse extracted as “guarantor of last resort”; the proletariat is the bedrock of the capitalist, it is this and what capitalism derives from their public expenditure that it depends on. They are backbone of all the economic forces and without them the whole system collapses. This current fiasco shows how important people's economic stability, financial resource capacity and buoyancy is paramount in a capitalist system (6) It is reliant ultimately on consumers to consume at a cost it can afford but they are continuously being exposed to usury by governments timidity in controlling excesses of business and the financial sectors.

So the opening phrase heading above, may be a simplification of what is occurring, capitalism is being massacred as it pleads for a Lazarus revival with the intensive care of the government largess; portentous perhaps pointing to the demise of laissez faire economics. From now on the wealth and health of people must now come first! To do so will require many states-wo/men to have a damascene-conversion of their long held right-wing dogmas, but will this shock do it? One would have said, not just on this matter but of other situations in the past that we see and have the arse end of donkeys pontificating on matters they hardly grasp, extolling on the marvels they have performed to save their economy and now there are still, probably too many, ready to proclaim to also save the world and health of a nation, as we are all (not) in it together.

(1) Economic collapse, Extensive Social Fragmentation, War, Irrepressible Pestilence, Systemic Environmental Shock, or Unidentified ELE.

(2)    It is not a science; there is no proven replication in volatile economics.

(3)    Rightwing economist Freidman, Hayck, Minford, Clark, Mises, Lucas.

(4)    Breadline Britain: by Stewart Lansley & Joanna Mack.

 (4)   And The Weak Must suffer What They Must?: by Yanis Varoufakis

 (4   Them and Us: by Will Hutton

 (4)   Injustice: by Daniel Dorking

 (4)   Chronicles: by Thomas Piketty

 (4)   The State We’re in: by Will Hutton

 (4)   Whoops: by John Lancaster

 (4)   Going South: by Larry Elliot & Dan Atkinson. “Why Britain will have a third world economy by 2014”

 (5) https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

 (5) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/

(6) Capitalism: The two contending economic forces that challenge against any competitor, may for condensed sake be explained as:-

a) Classic Economics - Supply and Demand: (Invisible Hand) classical theory is that the economy is self‐regulating and markets function best with minimal government interference resting on supply and demand; the variable tensions between scarcity and abundance of consumables and price determinates. This is often boosted with Laissez Faire Capitalism that calls for it to be trade and commerce free from government intervention such as regulation, privileges, tariffs, and subsidies.

b) Keynesian economics: Keynesian economics promotes government monetary and fiscal programs intended to motivate business activity and increase employment, especially during recessions or were private investment cannot serve the common good or private infrastructure ventures have stalled.

In both these theories there is an assumption that individuals will act and respond rationally to derive the best outcome, primarily for themselves but also meeting the requirements of whatever activities they are engaged with; accordingly adjusting their actions as a reasonable person would and by extension such activities, in competitive markets with this amalgamation of individual rationality directives, also aims to produce the best market outcomes, thereby markets, as a whole being of itself rational and self correcting. 

Conclusions?  

What has one observed through this period? It is a massive assumption one makes here with little actual evidence to call on however it does seem strange that given that there was a suspicion, noted by some Chinese doctors back in November / December or earlier(?) that there was a rise in unidentified flu like infections, the information of which was self selectively suppressed. It was not until doctor Li Wenliang publicly raised the issue in late December that eventually it was identified as the new flu strain. During that hiatus period the disease may have already been set loose into the travelling world and drove subsequent infections or some deaths which may have been addressed as the usual seasonal flu. But once it was identified in China with statically localised numbers being infected, it was only then that it was looked for specifically in other external population; then even in December it was probably too late to seriously contain it. The world health organisation may have already been aware of the potentiality earlier than January but could not make a convincing public statement to alert all countries to take measures quickly? Is it likely that many more uncounted people were infected prior to the deaths within a noted age group and many may been overlooked? So here we are, now knowing what to look for. Shutting down civil activities, while allowing businesses to continue, is not a solution to a national / global pandemic. Such action may slow a spread but creates sectional infections and is unlikely to eradicate reservation pools. The expanding damaged to an economy is extraordinarily difficult cope with only a government not capitalist capable of doing so. To cover all activities that demand help or recover from the damage of a shut-down could break an economy; in any event a recession is likely as people nurture limited financial resources and rack up more personal debt followed by inflation circa 2021/2. Shutting down an entire economy in this interrelated world cannot be done; the market will seek to circumvention to make transferable gains; to stop opportunism stronger control is required perhaps a 100% tax on unscrupulous deals? Capitalism may learn nothing from this event and as with the CC which the world has not recovered from, this period may be the foundation of something worse. One mitigation to the fragmentation of who / what to restrict in pandemics may be to it make compulsory everyone going out or needing travel to work must wear a mask and gloves and consistent public education in hygiene is needed because hygiene care knowledge most people are ignorant of for: ‘nil by mouth for MEN’ (Mouth Eyes Nose).Yes there are issues with supply just now but items like sanitises, mask and gloves should become a stand-by emergency pack for every household in the future. Might it happen again? Possibly yes but not so sure it could be economically sustainable to repeat regular £1.5trn+ splurges. Governments love emergencies in which to take exceptional powers that they do not want to relinquish, just in case and this will be a future problem.  

The response in recognising the threat was overall possibly too slow, tracing and tracking’ carriers’ was impotent. The example of London shows how not to do it. Shutting international travel should have been considered or tightly restricted with personal testing to lead to infected persons immediately being isolated. But how fast can a test kits be made up, it is unlikely? Human nature has shown the best and worst of people especially when they are fearful, lack a source of reliable truthful information and many survive on a thin edge of destitution. Many people are under-resourced and reliant on just in time cash and food replenishment, hence naturally many panic creating shortages and business profiteering. Media apps, their main source of information, predominate and spread fake news, an official app on all mediums is needed. Well what does one know about any of this?  

© Renot

283201445

This New Eidibus Martiis?

Here we are in the early part of the 21^st century and at the dawn of, what will be, one thinks, for little engalnd, a most defining commencement to absorbing consequences of tainted hasty ill-founded decisions, done not even relying on the hackneyed adage “we know what we know and don’t know the unknown phases of what we don’t know, - a leap in the dark and if you believe in it, a ‘unsound faith’ that all will be well. As semi rational observers of consequences should know, experience is the most effective tutor of not engaging in rash action without a sound foundation of where one is in relation to viewed changes and in most scenarios “events” will always attempt to trash the best miss applied vacuous assumptions. In this one can say, with a great deal of prejudice that just now the demise of the UK is in the hands of individuals that form one of the most incompetent cabinet / governments that could be assembled into the role of an elective dictatorship.

 Back in 2017 on the 29^th March, Maybot set that date to abscond from the EU. Three years on it is only at the 31^st January 2020 did the penultimate event occur to be possibly concluded at 2021. There was not in January any proffered great celebrations; no bell ringing, fireworks, street parties, dancing, exuberating ecstatic carousing. It was, as supposed country festivities go, a much muted affair particularly in London and practically none existent elsewhere in the country. This was almost as if the Brexiteers having got their way suddenly realised that they had no real idea of what it was they were supposed to be in celebration of and decided to scuttle away, in shame. There were a selective number of lit candles from those who could place the mourning light, to recall the lose. (1) But in a most peculiar way, perhaps unnoticed by many was a poignant film epitaph, the showing on Sony Free view on that night of the 31^st January; V for Vengeance, a dystopian unintentional simile which could be harmonised to elements of current english political charlatans and activities in play now. It was quite disquieting to see the attachments that can be made with actors in it and the set scene processes, especially when the chief inspector standing on a roof top and looking over the London sky line, asks of the unknown action which V was about to unleash. 

"Tonight is your big night; are you ready for it, are we ready for it?"

It was the blowing up of the houses of parliament!  Someone has a sense of the moment to have placed this in the late evening programme time for this date. Was it not a coincident? But Glorious! This especially as the parliament building is to have spent on it some £3.5bn to £5.6bn > to save it from perilous neglected deteriorations which may take 14 o 40 years to correct, in which time it may come to pass that this will be a spectacular waste of money, time and effort when a new location and building ought to be established elsewhere to avoid the great Thames flood.

Fawkes may yet arise; however for now, having tenure of just over two months of the building, BoJo and his quislings are trying to make moves to stifle the influence and experienced advice of civil servants in all departments of administrative government. To have them overlook evidence of policy implications, accumulated knowledge and accept without question the script of the pliant minister in charge of those departments in the belief that civil servants have been and are a hindrance to governmental direction. At the same time, bullying to bend the civil services to compile formulated ‘evidence’ to support and justify the ministers’ assumptions to strengthen enforced policy direction. This is happening in all departments but most obviously in the Treasury, Home Offices, Defence, Environment, Transport and DHSC. The recent resignation by a senior civil servant from the Home Office and his public statement to the effect that his minister (Ms Pretty Patel) is lying and the bullying by her of staff has caused a stir but also combines with a media view that she is incompetent and out of her depth, never the less BoJo being Pussy-whipped (2) says he has complete confidence in her, so far!

In addition to his busy agenda he is surreptitiously devising (Unchallengeable) ways to curtail the supreme court role in the application and interpretation of legitimate laws (This as a result of BoJo’s failed action to illegally prorogue parliament) and although moving to rig the House of Lords with more cronies; as the government has a large parliamentary majority, fighting off the Lords is not a problem for it now as the House of Lords may seem to have been, but BoJo wants to see it moved out of London.

Having intimated some vague promissory aspirations of spending programmes funded by the budding “magic money tree”, one cannot ascertain any obvious easing of the austerity intent already in play but there is a maybe definite agreement to continue with the first stage project of HS2 fast/slow train build from London to Birmingham and then the second stage onto the deserving counties of Lancashire and Yorkshire – maybe. At a cost of £100bn for the first stage and IF the whole scheme is completed, a sub £200bn price tag may not be avoided. This is a project that some analysis suggest, has no economical functional useful purpose beyond the initial capital spending, to the hinterland it passes through, or the “left behinds” with the majority of the UK population never getting the opportunity to need to use it, or afford to.

Never mind; BoJo has agreed to resolve the contentious issues of renewing trident, from the USA at a cost of £41bn; to a £200bn whole expenditure including the Dreadnought subs so all the “left behinds” can sleep peacefully in the beds hoping this expenditure is another good example of trickledown economics and not a waste of tax payers money.

Not even fresh into the new years when the anticipated increase in rainfall and subsequent over flooding of rivers and banks into built on flood plains, has had a salutary wake up affect in that it is happening on a much wider area and for prolonged periods, particularly in places that have not been affected for over a hundred years in places like Shropshire, Worcester, Wales, Lancashire, Yorkshire etc destroying property and negating any chance of further insurance cover. One wonders why no one has examined past planning application where building has taken place on  the areas affected by water flow; they are sure to show that in circulating application for comment at the time of application from interested parties, there will be a mention from one of the utilities that development is taking place on a “one in a hundred years flood plain!” Allowing plans to proceed could well have now raised some historic liability to the Local authority, developer and undisclosed facets of a legal search conveyance. Notable in this period is BoJo’s absence from the affected areas, ‘no photo ops’ and probably hiding from probing electorates scrutiny just like he and his ministers are forbidden to be questioned by the BBC or strenuously tested by any other reporters. BoJo is in a Prime Ministerial position but clearly not in power, with primacy being bequeathed to his compliant ministers and chief Mad Spad behind whom BoJo can secrete himself seemingly wanting to be acting like a CEO or ostensible COB by delegation; his lack of comprehension of responsibilities, attention span and grasp of scenarios is evident.

So we start the march with the hyping of the “climate emergency” a niece cliché that does not actually compete with what is becoming a slow burn of limited action by nations. Some can take a dichotomy of positions re business as usual and ‘O’ let’s not go overboard about it – doing too much or too fast will be terribly difficult and expensive but events are irritating. Like: the uk has signed up to the Paris Accord climate measure and put in place the first national ‘legal’ law stipulation on meeting emissions control and low and behold the proposed new Heathrow Airport runway permission that the Maybot government passed through parliament, has been found to be illegal by the supreme court, as it does not attend to proper environment concerns as laid out by the Paris Accord and Parliaments own created law. BoJo was against the extension and with his promise to be flattened by a bulldozer to stop it taking place to bolster his ‘London popularity’, managed to also originally skip out of the vote in parliament to oppose it; duplicitous dummy that he is but he is now saved by the law made by a ‘sovereign parliament’ which will have extensive effects on likely future infrastructure projects. Unfortunately for him the sponsors behind the airport extension  are not going to give it up so he can expect a great deal of persuasion to bend the strictures of the environmental controls but it also could bring into the firing line the whole HS2 + and any potential strategy of regional development infrastructure plans to aid the left behind counties.

And just to add to his opening tenure in office, there is the spread of the new virus Covid 19 that came from Chinas peasants ‘bush tucker’ inclination, consuming infected animal meats. It is sporadic around the world and although it is being treated like influenza, there is no cure yet. The tack is to attempt to stop it from becoming endemic and a seasonal re-occurrence. BoJo was doing his bit by ‘self isolation’ and standing behind his health minster however it is instructive to note the effect of this new viral outbreak  is having on the fall of world stock markets, the difficulty countries are having  in containment and the somewhat slow implementation of  countermeasure. At the start of the China outbreak, the reality that this was a new virus crossing over from animal ingestion and its infection of people was hidden and slow to be acknowledge, with a low infected prognosis, high recover and a low death rate, countries relied on China's containment. As it spread mainly by close contact and later in some cases by an unknown vector it was treated as a flu outbreak by countries and they did not initially put in place rapid controls. Now it has taken a hold in most countries, those with an effective health controlled system are able to take steps but the greater problem is within those countries that do not have and this may exacerbate the spread of it and offer a long term incubation reserve for re-ignition. It is now falling under the management of traceability and containment and isolation with hygiene advice to self protect. Although the disease has flu like symptoms from which many recover it is still a serious problem for anyone with underling health issues and as there is no cure death is a possibility. Countries like the UK are awaking up to the fact that this disease is having an economic affect and have stepped up tracking and containment with the possibility of limited hospitalisation, home or localised selective or larger scale isolations. The game now is to operate a ‘delay phase, move to containment, treatment and eradicate, hopefully. Once this fails there may be a retreat tack to play down the effect on the population to place this contagion into the 'seasonal flu' scenario and accept it is just another 'less' harmful virus the healthy bodies can cope with providing suitable recuperation is taken. This probability may be reasonable if a death rate of 2% - 5% is acceptable based on those with weakened immunity but were it to increase to 10% + and hitting younger healthier humans then stronger contingency plans would have to be enacted. One vainly is in hope “lessons will be learnt” for the Big One.

Action so far is underplaying the importance of this outbreak. This is a new cross over disease for which there is no current cure and it may take a year to establish a definitive one. Also like the influenza its mutation ability speed is unknown. The hope is that with warmer weather the disease will be stopped and no reoccurrence but if there is a hidden reservoir anywhere, what then? This may not be ‘The Big One’, a rampant biological or viral infection but what it does show is the lack of national / global speedy controls and the inability of containment or localised selective treatment by say, the UK, of handling high volume infections. Its health services are under resourced and ineffectively prepared, a possible systemic problem exacerbated by Austerity. The cover now, is principally whatever happens do not allow the economy to suffer however the reality of this with Brexit is made it irreducibly stark; the interrelatedness of the UK economy and economics overall is quickly sensitive to global events and of course the Cons historically are not known for their willingness to intercede with banking or private sector business support. So even if it plays into causing a delay to the next Brexit date, keep the population borrowing / spending or not panic! The contagion prognosis pathway is unstable but hopefully containable. China is to at last introduce some food safety standards; standards et al. which  BoJo wants to reduce to get exciting new free trade deals – with the usa, China, India, Pakistan, Korea; anywhere but the EU. BoJo’s in charge with COBRA on this now to add to his heavy stressful work load, which should not interfere with his weekend retreats.

Which brings one to the March Brexit; All that can be said has been said about it so far but it is a word which is now banned from future governmental dialogue or publication as it is a “Done Deal” and is no longer worth mentioning however no tangible trade deal or terms are yet agreed. Negotiations are to start this first week in March with the current ‘March hare’ cabinet minister M. Gove, stating that unless by June a good deal is given by that EU, the government will “walk away”. One is not quite sure to where but this must mean a satisfying hard Brexit the crazies have wanted all along by the end of the year. This does not of course allow for the problem of a delayed timetable for Brexit that the existing Covid19 may be called into play.  BoJo being one of a prime instigators of this historic chapter has unusually bad judgement in the direction he is moving, allowing so far the denigration of the civil services personnel with the sanction of his ‘Mad Spad’ and the laxity of control bestowed onto inexperienced pliable ministers; shows probably he is finding it difficult exercising any leadership skill set (doubtful he has any) or comprehensive policy judgments (too facile minded) that also requires absorbingly responsibility for decisions he or subordinates take. Because for the first time in his life, he has to reconcile his parody antics to damaging consequences and cannot pantomime / bumble his way out of a situation just to advance his career, he is where he wanted to be, all blame and faults now flow to him.  

O but events, events; like the Environment, Covid 19, Cold Economic Reality, USA Election, Turkey-Greece-EU-Migration Conflicts, Investment Flight, Fragile Currency, Feeble World Economic Growth, Stock Market Rout,  No Deal etc. may all point to the nuisance of the ‘Ides of March’ and limp into the uk’s own end of days?

(1) See: Ian McEwan https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/01/brexit-pointless-masochistic-ambition-history-done.

(2) Pussy-whipped: Someone who is too attracted to seeking female attachment probably sexually and gets subtly or overtly inhibited by the females charms.

See: Eidibus Martiis  XX1X. Or on the Ides of March? +14 2017

© Renot

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