Iraq Hope?
Iraq
It is appalling to see a comparatively modern country declining to the chaos of internecine civil war. That the British and Americans have to take responsibility for this state of affairs cannot be avoided. If every there was a cause to charge countries or two individual with creating a situation that is now developing into culpable genocide, this must be one.
There is little point in going over the ground that took these countries to the point of invading Iraq and inflicting war on it, perhaps even less so in examining the miss calculation and bungled after effects leading to current debacle. But the finger of guilt has to aim at the delusion of grandeur and the mantle of incompetence of an ex drunk with a Christian fundamentalist attitude, egotism and the subservient self interest of the bull dog.
Sadly retrospection gives no clue to a way of bringing peace to this now blighted country however it does generate a major force to instil a degree of fear for the next decade to these two countries against any further military adventure – they may still have not learned that the nature of war and its application has change, democracy is a powerful assuage to the pursuit of a war. See how to win a war.
So now Iran and Syria, part of the ‘axis of evil’ are being courted to seek a way out of the mess, to have them step in and influence the combatant to a point of stability, cease the internal sectarian wholesale murders and stop the slide into anarchy. Why should they?
It does seem that the Americans are tentatively willing to engage Iran but not Syria. This is not a feasible game, it will be more effective if both can be drawn in but it is equally uncertain that parties in Iraq will be of sufficient authority to carry forward any addition external ‘assistance’ influence.
The apparent general feeling in the Middle East that forms the background for much of its troubles lay in the sore of the continuing Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Gaza issues. This does not help the situation nor does the perception of American imperialism and its obvious commitment to support Israel, in all that it does, against the developing Arab Middle East trend. Without doubt the various forms of Islam and the constant vying for power of the sects, does seem the curse for the region. It is also seen as a slow spreading threat to the secular west which need not be the case if it is turned upon itself.
For now, will Iran & Syria play ball? Probably, if they can see a measure of opportunity in opening up a whole mid east debate and particularly given:-
They want nuclear energy,
They want Israel reigned in.
They want to humble USA,
They want separate influence
They have religious limitations
They do not want democracy.
They will bargain but at a slow pace.
There are some great differences between these two countries largely driven by multiply religious bipolar differences, this is little different to most of the mid east and Asia as it is punctuated with the many strands of Islam interpretation. Although the more extreme fanatic wants to focus on the west, there are at the same time factions within them that will continue to fight amongst themselves given the appropriate opportunity and others of greater moderation.
BUT they and others will be very foolish to ignore what has started and it will be dangerous for them not to participate, for one very good reason. They are at the moment stable, there is authority, order and control however if Iraq descend to a state of utter chaos with religious factions fighting for dominance, there is every possibility that a total theocratic state will back flash influence into their own countries. The last thing the Arab countries want is to see the spread of rampant uncontrolled fundamentalism. They must realise, like the Israelis have with demographics, that the tide is turning against the overall importance of the region. It might have suited the west in the past, at some stage to ferment insurrection as a way a destabilising unfriendly states and as a way of slowing their nuclear development however the game now is to get out. The same scenario may apply to the whole of the Middle East and beyond. Once the oil fades and subject to environmental pressures, the area will be of little interest, what then if they do have nuclear energy?
More political thought is turning to withdrawal from the mess however abandoning what has been created within Iraq, will inevitably lead to a horrendous blood bath until parties are exhausted with one vicious element becoming superior to the other, it will then take a decade+ to stabilise, assuming the trouble can be contained to this one country.
© Renot 2006
17.11.06
It is appalling to see a comparatively modern country declining to the chaos of internecine civil war. That the British and Americans have to take responsibility for this state of affairs cannot be avoided. If every there was a cause to charge countries or two individual with creating a situation that is now developing into culpable genocide, this must be one.
There is little point in going over the ground that took these countries to the point of invading Iraq and inflicting war on it, perhaps even less so in examining the miss calculation and bungled after effects leading to current debacle. But the finger of guilt has to aim at the delusion of grandeur and the mantle of incompetence of an ex drunk with a Christian fundamentalist attitude, egotism and the subservient self interest of the bull dog.
Sadly retrospection gives no clue to a way of bringing peace to this now blighted country however it does generate a major force to instil a degree of fear for the next decade to these two countries against any further military adventure – they may still have not learned that the nature of war and its application has change, democracy is a powerful assuage to the pursuit of a war. See how to win a war.
So now Iran and Syria, part of the ‘axis of evil’ are being courted to seek a way out of the mess, to have them step in and influence the combatant to a point of stability, cease the internal sectarian wholesale murders and stop the slide into anarchy. Why should they?
It does seem that the Americans are tentatively willing to engage Iran but not Syria. This is not a feasible game, it will be more effective if both can be drawn in but it is equally uncertain that parties in Iraq will be of sufficient authority to carry forward any addition external ‘assistance’ influence.
The apparent general feeling in the Middle East that forms the background for much of its troubles lay in the sore of the continuing Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Gaza issues. This does not help the situation nor does the perception of American imperialism and its obvious commitment to support Israel, in all that it does, against the developing Arab Middle East trend. Without doubt the various forms of Islam and the constant vying for power of the sects, does seem the curse for the region. It is also seen as a slow spreading threat to the secular west which need not be the case if it is turned upon itself.
For now, will Iran & Syria play ball? Probably, if they can see a measure of opportunity in opening up a whole mid east debate and particularly given:-
They want nuclear energy,
They want Israel reigned in.
They want to humble USA,
They want separate influence
They have religious limitations
They do not want democracy.
They will bargain but at a slow pace.
There are some great differences between these two countries largely driven by multiply religious bipolar differences, this is little different to most of the mid east and Asia as it is punctuated with the many strands of Islam interpretation. Although the more extreme fanatic wants to focus on the west, there are at the same time factions within them that will continue to fight amongst themselves given the appropriate opportunity and others of greater moderation.
BUT they and others will be very foolish to ignore what has started and it will be dangerous for them not to participate, for one very good reason. They are at the moment stable, there is authority, order and control however if Iraq descend to a state of utter chaos with religious factions fighting for dominance, there is every possibility that a total theocratic state will back flash influence into their own countries. The last thing the Arab countries want is to see the spread of rampant uncontrolled fundamentalism. They must realise, like the Israelis have with demographics, that the tide is turning against the overall importance of the region. It might have suited the west in the past, at some stage to ferment insurrection as a way a destabilising unfriendly states and as a way of slowing their nuclear development however the game now is to get out. The same scenario may apply to the whole of the Middle East and beyond. Once the oil fades and subject to environmental pressures, the area will be of little interest, what then if they do have nuclear energy?
More political thought is turning to withdrawal from the mess however abandoning what has been created within Iraq, will inevitably lead to a horrendous blood bath until parties are exhausted with one vicious element becoming superior to the other, it will then take a decade+ to stabilise, assuming the trouble can be contained to this one country.
© Renot 2006
17.11.06
posted by Renot at 7:47 am
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