Thursday, April 05, 2007

Future of the world - 1999

Future of the world – 1999

It is a big risk but a bit of navel gazing should be sufficient to make a complete fool of anybody that has the temerity to attempt to forecast what the world will be like over the next 200 years. So here goes listed under heading but obviously items must be interlinked with a possible indication of time frame.

Environment: Although this is a great talking point today, not a huge deal has been done to really bring it onto the active agenda of many countries. Up to now the rich ones have had a vested interest in not taking on board too many economic penalties in adopting solutions to mitigate any forecasted changes in the world weather patterns, while the aspiring poorer ones see no advantage or reason to hold back from acquiring the mechanisms for any economic benefits they can fasten onto. It is still an active debate and the arguments on whether it is happening or not has to a large extent been won by the proponent of it. Yes it is happening but how fast and to whom? A contentious point of view is that the earth’s climate over a long period of time had changed on a regular basis and in looking at the physical evidence related to the Co2 level; it has been much higher in the past but not matched with the theory of global warming. Some notable science commentators hold that the Co2 increases of the past two hundred years does not indicate a direct correlation with the evidence of the change in weather patterns being experience now and therefore suggest a much more cautious approach to enforcing energy changes should be considered looking at the whole of the possible mechanisms. Indeed they have indicated that it will make very little difference to go down a path of forcing a reductive change in the utilisation of carbon produced energy, for in the immediate short term it will have no noticeable effect. They do not deny that a change is occurring but that science must look to other possible causes as well even leaving aside any ‘natural’ unforeseen earth/sun/galaxy cycle. Politically a course is being perused that supports the view that environmental change is occurring and it is being worked up as the most important earth changing effect of the current era which will affect the population of the world. This is probably true but the environmental impact is not what will be the most disruptive.

The unhurried tack of accepting the impact of environmental damage has been lamentable slow this could be because it is such a huge task and the puny effort to counter the changes that will take place are unlikely to effect the outcome in the short term but some things have to be done. What I see is a rise in self interest at the expense of talking change. No county would want to suffer at the expense of a fragmentation in stability on its own soil however the practicalities of the visible effect will stimulate action. The forecast is that that the planet will get warmer, sea level will rise by 2035 5mt some areas will get hotter and dryer causing economic collapse, this has been said before.

The environment change will impact on energy production as resource will be required to mitigate the effects leading to energy crisis, this change will have a damaging impact on more tropical counties and will increase the pressure for population shifts, and this will have the biggest effect in Europe. Europe which is likely to have a more moderated climatic change; is likely to be the focus of a way to escape the harshness of deteriorating conditions by the increased mobile population. The future looks grim from this perspective and there seems little to stop the population shifts and epidemics occurring. 2015 will see the mass migration of people to avoid death and degradation caused by server weather changes, it will be stopped. Having a huge influx of unassimilated people in Europe within in a short period of time will raise demographic pressure that will upset the social order, this will mean increase ‘security’ restriction on external pressure but will be really aimed at controlling breakdown in authority within own boarders.

There is every possibility that with a higher volume and severity of tempestuous storms that key parts of the usa will suffer a deluge in hitting the mississippi basin, florida, louisiana, california, and higher level of fire storms in the great national park. 2027 The lesson of new orleans will not have been learned. At this time usa is seen as the most powerful country in the world. It has the economic and military strength that is unsurpassed, so far. It has a global reach both in military and economic strength and has a wealth infrastructure that is on the surface bountiful. However it will suffer from uncompetitive producer capacity in a global open market, and reduce what little social net is available. With no overall social structure and a divergent ethnic mix, right wing tendency will ignore seeing or noticing internal discord and attempt to excising might to gain right. The dollar will cease to be a reserve currency against the euro.

Geopolitical shift: middle east will experience turmoil as the use and access to water becomes a fractious issue between countries laying claim to its source and flow volume or lack of it. Oil will still be the only major influence these areas have but by 2025 even this will show signs of full utilisation. Asia will have death on a large scale, famine warring, pestilence. There is every possibility of there being an islamic war as the different factions struggle to impose their own particular interpretation of being muslim. Secularism will have a hard time finding a moderating voice. China by 2017 will have sufficient strength to flex its own might particularly over Taiwan and will invade Taiwan as the usa will increasingly have its attention elsewhere, particularly as by 2023 oil will be at a premium upon which the usa will depend most heavily having done very little to modify usage and will expose it to fragmentation of state independence along ethnic lines. 2030 europe will have expanded its area with the inclusion of russia, turkey and looking to assimilate up to the boarders of china.

As countries seek to meet the challenge of the weather change with sea level rise and the obvious switch in climate of 2030 and the pressures of population stress, genetic mutation and alterations will have become unstoppable. 2015 will have seen the introduction of ID cards that will have become mandatory and there will be DNA capture at birth throughout the EC. The bastion of lasisez fair economic will have introduced stringent safety barriers for its own producers against import and will also see the need to adopt similar security measures.

Economic: 2107 although a world government would be ideal it will not have the power to moderate the protectionism that will creep in over the next 100 years. The three economic power blocks the Americas, Asia. and Europe will be too busy to stabilise their own areas after the war to want to cede power to the infant of the un. Private business will have to be much more controlled for the benefit of social integration and maximising the available resources, this will be after a period were social fragmentation will have been experience due to rollback of state intervention in social constructs transferred to private sectors. 2207 should see the establishment of a virtual world command economy business will still operate but their sole purpose to serve the needs of the shareholders will have changes dramatically, they will be require to take a greater social presence to maintain their reason to exist. It will be the end of lasisez fair economics.

General: 2150 should see the use of fusion a common power source with an understanding of the morph ability of material for gravity and mass to be breached. Land mass will be reduced due to sea level rise requiring energy to habitat inhospitable areas. Despite the early failure, biogenetics and bionano meshing will become acceptable to engineer and change the humans qualities however an endemic underclass will have been created that is not accommodated in the prosperous zones. Eugenics and DNA screening for undesirable traits will be common and world wide population control will be under a symposium.

Outside episode external contact: Given that there will have been indisputable evidence of life elsewhere other than on earth, At what state would it be reasonable to assume that the earth will become interesting enough for others to make a presence felt. The immense volume of other worlds should show that this one is not unique but something occurs that bring attention. The problem will be; has the earth population matured enough to accept that they are not alone? Assuming that the next 200 years brings a world consolidation that can support even brief extended external exploits, it will not be enough to match what is to be faced up to. But I fully expect that the pressure to overcome the degradation and limits of the earth will drive energy to both the reengineering of humans and create the technology to assemble external resources 2957 will have the capacity to start the journeys. Any species will have overcome the need to use radio as a means of communication instead there may be something in the productions of tachyon quantum mechanic communication.

With a navel full of fluff what sense can anybody make of trying to see the future, one is absolutely sure if it happens, it will not be what you expect so until you can change it wait for it to happen.

© Renot 2007

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